Definition
Year-on-year inflation measures the percentage change in prices over the past twelve months and is one of the key indicators for assessing macroeconomic dynamics, purchasing power, and the credibility of monetary policy. The REM (Market Expectations Survey) collects private-sector forecasts of future inflation, allowing a comparison between observed inflation outcomes and market expectations.
Analysis
The series displays a highly volatile inflation trajectory, with episodes of stability, acceleration, and extreme peaks followed by phases of disinflation. In recent months, year-on-year inflation has continued to decline from exceptionally high levels toward more moderate readings.
REM expectations point to a further downward path, consistent with a more restrictive monetary stance, real appreciation, and a deceleration of inflation inertia.
Taken together, the gap between observed and expected inflation suggests that the disinflation process is underway, although it remains subject to risks related to the exchange rate, regulated prices, and fiscal-monetary credibility.