Definition
The Monthly Economic Activity Indicator (EMAE) is a high-frequency indicator that measures the monthly evolution of the level of economic activity. It allows for early assessment of GDP performance and a faster evaluation of changes in the business cycle.
Analysis
The series shows an initial period of sustained growth during the 2000s, driven by expanding consumption and investment, as well as favorable external conditions.
Between 2008 and 2009, a slowdown is observed linked to the global financial crisis, followed by a rapid recovery that restored the upward trend.
From 2012 onward, more pronounced fluctuations emerge, with phases of stagnation and contraction associated with external constraints, declining competitiveness, and increased macroeconomic volatility.
In 2020, the pandemic caused a sharp contraction in activity, although the subsequent rebound was significant. Even so, the series has remained fragile, with alternating periods of recovery and setback.
In the most recent period, signs of partial improvement are observed, but without a clear structural shift. Economic activity remains constrained by macroeconomic adjustment, weak consumption, and developments in the external sector.