Definition
Credit to the Private Sector measures the total stock of peso-denominated loans granted to firms and households by the banking system. The series is expressed in millions of current pesos and constitutes a key indicator of financial depth, access to credit, and the role of the banking system in intermediating between savings and investment.
To properly interpret its dynamics, nominal credit growth must be assessed against inflation, interest rates, and the level of economic activity, distinguishing between real credit expansion and mere increases driven by nominal effects.
Analysis
Between 2020 and 2022, the nominal stock of peso-denominated credit to the private sector increased almost continuously. However, this growth took place in a context of very high inflation, meaning that real credit remained, at best, stagnant and in several periods contracted. The banking system failed to expand financing at a pace sufficient to offset the loss of the currency’s purchasing power.
In 2023, nominal credit growth accelerated sharply, tracking a phase of extremely high inflation and strong exchange rate adjustments. Nevertheless, the combination of rising prices, very high interest rates, and elevated macroeconomic uncertainty limited the recovery of real credit. Much of the increase in outstanding balances reflected nominal reindexation rather than a genuine expansion in loan volumes.
Starting in 2024, a regime shift becomes apparent. As inflation gradually decelerates and nominal volatility declines, the stock of peso-denominated credit begins to grow in real terms, according to official data. The strong nominal increase observed in 2024–2025 no longer reflects inflation alone, but also a genuine recovery in credit, driven by improved balance sheets and rising demand for working capital and deferred consumption. Nonetheless, credit depth remains low by international standards, implying that the consolidation of this process will depend on sustained disinflation and lasting macroeconomic stability.