Definition
The Government Confidence Index (GCI) measures the degree of public support for the Executive Branch, based on surveys that assess credibility, managerial capacity, integrity, and perceived effectiveness.
It is a political-institutional indicator that reflects social expectations and often anticipates changes in governability, the economic climate, and social tolerance toward adjustment policies or structural reforms.
Analysis
The GCI shows a significant jump in early 2016, associated with the change in administration and the initial effect of favorable expectations. However, between 2017 and 2019 a gradual deterioration is observed, in line with the macroeconomic crisis, accelerating inflation, and the loss of credibility of economic policy.
During 2020, the index records a temporary rebound, explained by the exceptional context of the pandemic, followed by a persistent decline between 2021 and 2023, as high inflation, exchange rate instability, and economic stagnation eroded confidence.
In late 2023, a sharp surge in the GCI occurs, consistent with a new change in government and a strong realignment of expectations. In 2024–2025, confidence remains at relatively high but volatile levels, reflecting initial support for reforms, albeit conditioned by the social impact of fiscal adjustment and the evolution of real income.