The Active Interest Rate in Pesos reflects the cost of credit applied by private banks to firms and households. It is a key reference for assessing financial conditions, credit availability, and the degree of monetary restriction or stimulus in the economy. The combined series displays both the observed rate and market expectations regarding its future path.

Recent data show a significant decline in the peso-denominated lending rate, from very high levels at the end of 2024 toward substantially lower values in the first months of 2025, consistent with a process of disinflation and monetary normalization.

During 2025, a phase of volatility emerges: following the initial decline, rates rebound in some months, reflecting episodes of heightened financial uncertainty and adjustments in inflation and risk expectations.

Interest rate expectations for 2026 point to a further downward path, with levels approaching less contractionary real rates, assuming that disinflation and exchange rate stability become entrenched.

Taken together, the combination of observed and expected rates suggests a transition from an environment of extremely expensive credit toward one characterized by more moderate financial costs, albeit still conditioned by the credibility of economic policy and the evolution of sovereign risk.