Argentina BADLAR Interest Rate

USD/ARS — from gradual depreciation to a more volatile exchange-rate regime

The official USD/ARS reference rate shows the number of Argentine pesos required to purchase one US dollar. It is a central indicator of Argentina’s nominal adjustment process because movements in the exchange rate affect domestic prices, financial contracts, external competitiveness, and expectations regarding the purchasing power of the peso.

Gradual depreciation during 2020–2021

The series began 2020 near ARS 60 per US dollar and ended that year close to ARS 84. The exchange rate continued to rise during 2021, but at a more moderate and relatively regular pace, closing the year near ARS 103 per dollar.

This phase was characterized by persistent nominal depreciation without the abrupt daily adjustments observed later in the sample. The controlled upward path limited short-term volatility, but it also produced a continuing erosion in the peso’s official value against the US dollar.

Acceleration in 2022

During 2022, the rate rose from approximately ARS 103 to ARS 177 per dollar. The faster pace marked a clear break from the slower adjustments of the preceding year and indicated that the official exchange rate was increasingly responding to stronger inflationary and balance-of-payments pressures.

Although the movement remained predominantly one-directional, the magnitude of the annual increase showed that the previous depreciation path was no longer sufficient to preserve the same nominal relationship between the peso and the dollar.

Major nominal adjustment in 2023

The most pronounced change in the series occurred in 2023. The official rate increased from roughly ARS 177 at the beginning of the year to more than ARS 800 by year-end, including a particularly sharp adjustment in December.

This represented a major repricing of the peso in official-market terms. The scale of the movement reflected the accumulated nominal imbalance and materially changed the level from which subsequent exchange-rate adjustments would take place.

More regular depreciation throughout 2024

After the abrupt adjustment at the end of 2023, the exchange rate followed a considerably smoother path during 2024. It rose from approximately ARS 808 to ARS 1,033 per dollar, with comparatively small and regular monthly increases.

The slower pace reduced short-term exchange-rate volatility relative to the previous year. Even so, the peso continued to depreciate in nominal terms, meaning that stability in the path did not imply a fixed exchange rate or an appreciation against the dollar.

Renewed flexibility and volatility in 2025

In 2025, the series became less linear. The rate moved from about ARS 1,033 at the start of the year to approximately ARS 1,459 at year-end, but the adjustment was concentrated in distinct episodes rather than distributed evenly across the year.

The increases observed around April, July, and the final months of the year were accompanied by periods of stabilization and occasional reversals. This pattern suggests a transition from the highly regular depreciation seen in 2024 toward a more flexible and market-sensitive official exchange-rate dynamic.

Partial appreciation followed by a rebound in 2026

During the first months of 2026, the official rate declined from approximately ARS 1,459 to around ARS 1,381 by the end of April, indicating a temporary nominal appreciation of the peso. This movement partially reversed the depreciation recorded during the second half of 2025.

The rate subsequently rebounded and reached approximately ARS 1,439 by June 17, 2026. Despite this recovery, it remained slightly below its level at the beginning of the year, while still standing about 22% above the corresponding value one year earlier.

Conclusion

The USD/ARS series captures a clear progression from gradual depreciation in 2020–2021 to acceleration in 2022, a major nominal adjustment in 2023, and a more orderly path in 2024. The renewed fluctuations observed from 2025 onward indicate that exchange-rate dynamics have become less mechanically predictable.

The latest readings point to a moderation in annual depreciation compared with the extreme adjustment of 2023, but not to complete exchange-rate stability. The sustainability of this slower pace will depend on inflation convergence, reserve accumulation, fiscal and monetary consistency, and continued confidence in the peso.