Argentina GDP (Gross Domestic Product)

The series shows extraordinarily high levels of country risk between 2020 and 2023, with peaks above 3,800 basis points in March 2020 during the global pandemic shock and Argentina’s debt restructuring. From September 2020 onward, a temporary easing is observed, but the EMBI remains persistently above 1,300–2,500 basis points, signaling structural distrust regarding debt sustainability and Argentina’s macroeconomic framework.

Between 2021 and 2023, the index reflects further deterioration: electoral uncertainty, rising inflation, a wide exchange rate gap, and tensions with the IMF push risk levels above 2,500–2,800 basis points, particularly during the historic 2023 drought and the weakening of international reserves.

The most significant shift occurs in 2024, when the EMBI begins a sustained decline from levels close to 1,900 basis points to below 800 basis points by the end of the year. This drop reflects a combination of aggressive fiscal consolidation, a sharp reduction in monetary issuance, partial reserve rebuilding, and improved expectations of macroeconomic normalization under a new policy regime.

In 2025, the downward trend continues, with readings even approaching 630–720 basis points, levels not seen since 2017–2018. However, the sharp spike to 1,220 basis points in September 2025 suggests a correction to initial optimism amid lingering risks: exchange rate misalignment, concerns over the social sustainability of adjustment, and delays in key structural reforms.

From a structural standpoint, although Argentina manages to exit the “permanent default” range (EMBI > 2,000), it remains far from the group of stable countries (EMBI < 400). The overall trend is one of improvement, but with episodes of volatility that underscore the fragility of the stabilization process and its dependence on the credibility of fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies.