Definition
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of final goods and services produced by the Argentine economy over a given period. The series used corresponds to quarterly GDP expressed in U.S. dollars at current prices.
Analysis
Between 2005 and 2011, GDP levels follow a clearly upward trajectory. The economy expands almost uninterruptedly, supported by favorable terms of trade, strong domestic consumption, and intensive use of installed capacity. GDP rises quarter after quarter, and the effective size of the economy increases significantly, marking a phase of sustained growth.
From 2012 onward, a regime shift becomes evident: GDP levels cease to grow on a sustained trend and enter a pattern of plateauing with episodes of decline. Between 2012 and 2017, output fluctuates around a relatively stable level, with years of mild recovery followed by setbacks. In level terms, this implies a loss of structural momentum: the economy stops converging toward a clear expansion path and shifts into stagnation.
The deterioration deepens from 2018, as exchange rate tensions, fiscal adjustment, high inflation, and the loss of access to voluntary financing combine. GDP levels begin to decline more sharply in 2018–2019, reflecting a carryover recession even prior to the pandemic. By 2020, the economy is smaller and more fragile than at the peak reached in the early 2010s.
In 2020, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic generates an additional contraction in GDP: activity collapses in the second quarter and only partially recovers in the second half of the year. Although the series shows a rebound in 2021–2022, output fails to sustain a new phase of prolonged expansion. In level terms, the economy regains part of the lost ground but remains below the potential observed during the mid-2000s boom.
During 2023 and 2024, GDP weakens again amid very high inflation, a severe drought, and rising macroeconomic uncertainty. Activity deteriorates, and the series reflects an economy once more operating below previous peaks, consolidating a decade of volatility and stagnation, where recoveries are partial and short-lived.
In 2025, a new recovery phase in GDP levels emerges. The latest data show an increase relative to 2024, consistent with an attempt at macroeconomic normalization under a different policy regime, centered on spending adjustment, lower monetary issuance, and efforts to restore confidence. Nevertheless, even with this rebound, the 2005–2025 trajectory represents a transition from a phase of vigorous growth to a prolonged period of instability and lower trend output.
From a structural perspective, GDP behavior suggests that the Argentine economy has struggled to sustain a long-term growth path. Recurrent shocks (exchange rate crises, debt conflicts, the pandemic, droughts) and frequent changes in economic policy regimes have prevented the consolidation of investment and productivity dynamics capable of permanently increasing the size of the economy. The result is a GDP level that oscillates around a plateau, with pronounced peaks and troughs, rather than a smooth upward trajectory.