Argentina Exports

Exports — cyclical weakness in 2020 and 2023, followed by a broad rebound

Argentina’s exports are a central variable for assessing the country’s external capacity, since they determine the flow of foreign currency available to support imports, service external obligations, and rebuild reserves. Because the export basket remains highly exposed to agriculture and commodities, the series is shaped not only by domestic competitiveness, but also by weather conditions, global prices, and sectoral diversification.

Moderate upward trajectory in 2015–2019

Between 2015 and 2019, exports followed a moderately upward trajectory, supported by a partial recovery in foreign trade and improvements in competitiveness following episodes of exchange-rate adjustment, albeit with a high dependence on commodity-price cycles.

This phase suggested some capacity to recover foreign-currency generation, but also highlighted the structural limitation of the export base: gains remained closely tied to relative-price shifts and external conditions rather than to a fully diversified expansion of volumes and sectors.

Pandemic contraction and post-pandemic recovery

In 2020, a marked contraction occurred, driven by the impact of the pandemic, the decline in global trade, and logistical disruptions. The fall in exports reflected both weaker external demand and the operational difficulties that affected trade flows during the global shock.

Subsequently, between 2021 and 2022, a gradual recovery took place, supported by stronger international prices and higher export volumes. This improvement partially restored external relief and underscored the importance of favorable commodity dynamics for Argentina’s external position.

Weakness in 2023, then strong rebound in 2024–2025

During 2023, exports weakened again, largely due to the historic drought that affected the agricultural sector. This episode was particularly severe because it hit one of the country’s main sources of foreign-currency generation at a moment of already fragile external conditions.

In contrast, in 2024 and 2025 a significant rebound is observed, associated with the normalization of agricultural production, the growing contribution of the energy sector, and a macroeconomic environment more oriented toward foreign-currency generation. This marks a notable improvement in the export picture relative to the drought-affected trough.

Structural interpretation

Structurally, the recent rebound is encouraging because it suggests that Argentina is regaining some export traction beyond the immediate normalization of agricultural output. In particular, the growing role of the energy sector points to a potentially important source of diversification over time.

Even so, the export profile remains highly sensitive to shocks in commodity prices, weather conditions, and the broader external cycle. Long-term external resilience will depend on turning cyclical rebounds into a more stable and diversified export base, less dependent on a narrow set of sectors and temporary relative-price improvements.

Conclusion

Argentina’s exports have recovered strongly after the weakness of 2023, improving the external outlook and supporting the broader stabilization effort. The rebound reflects both agricultural normalization and a wider contribution from non-traditional sources such as energy.

The key question ahead is whether this recovery can become more structural. Sustained external improvement will require not only favorable cycles, but also a more diversified and productive export sector capable of generating foreign currency with greater stability over time.