Definition
The Primary Balance or Primary Surplus reflects the difference between revenues and expenditures of the National Public Sector before interest payments on public debt. Negative values indicate a deficit, while positive values indicate a primary surplus.
Analysis
Between 2015 and 2023, a pattern of persistent deficits predominated, with sharp deteriorations in 2020 (pandemic) and again in 2022–2023, when high inflation, the severe drought, and the electoral context reduced revenues and widened the fiscal imbalance.
From 2024 onward, the series shifts abruptly: all quarters record very large primary surpluses. This turnaround is mainly explained by a strong contraction in public spending, including real reductions in social benefits and pensions, lower transfers to provinces, cuts in economic subsidies, and inflation-driven erosion that reduced real expenditures.
From a structural perspective, the country moves from a regime of chronic deficits to one of accelerated fiscal consolidation. Its sustainability will depend on transforming emergency adjustment measures into permanent reforms that stabilize public finances without relying exclusively on spending cuts.