The trade balance measures the difference between total exports and total imports of goods. Positive values indicate a trade surplus (exports exceed imports), while negative values indicate a trade deficit.

The monthly series presented, spanning from 1992 to 2025, allows for an assessment of major shifts in Argentina’s external regime: periods of openness and strong import growth, phases of large surpluses following devaluations, and episodes of renewed stress when the balance returns to deficit.

Between 1992 and 1998, a near-continuous trade deficit predominated. Imports grew strongly, consistently outpacing exports, in line with an appreciated exchange rate and financial openness. The external sector functioned as a source of vulnerability, financing consumption and investment through external savings.

From 1999 to 2001, deficits narrowed and some months of surplus emerged, but without altering the underlying fragility. The 2001–2002 crisis and the sharp devaluation marked a turning point: starting in 2002, the trade balance shifted to very large surpluses, driven by rising exports and a collapse in imports. This pattern of high and persistent surpluses prevailed during much of 2003–2011.

From 2012 onward, the surplus began to shrink and the trade balance entered a more volatile phase. In the mid-2010s, periods of balance or moderate deficits reappeared, signaling renewed pressure on imports from domestic demand growth and exchange rate appreciation. Between 2016 and 2017, frequent deficits returned, reflecting an economy once again dependent on external financing to sustain activity.

In 2018–2019, following exchange rate correction and recession, the trade balance reversed: the final months of 2018 and all of 2019 recorded significant surpluses, driven by import compression and a more competitive exchange rate. In 2020–2021, the pandemic and the collapse in domestic demand sustained high surpluses, although these narrowed as economic activity recovered.

In 2022–2023, the balance deteriorated again, with the reemergence of deficit months linked to higher imports (energy and inputs) and export supply constraints. However, from 2024 onward, the series once again shows large and recurrent surpluses, which persist into 2025, albeit at somewhat lower magnitudes. This latest phase combines import adjustment, a higher exchange rate, and a gradual recovery in exports.

Taken as a whole, the 1992–2025 period describes an economy alternating between two external regimes: one characterized by debt-financed deficits (notably in the 1990s and mid-2010s), and another marked by forced surpluses following sharp devaluations and domestic recession. Long-term sustainability depends on transforming crisis-driven surpluses into a more stable pattern of competitiveness, based on higher export productivity and reduced reliance on exchange rate shocks.

Series Statistics