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Indicators
Inflation
Activity
Activity Trend
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Details
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Methodology
• Input: EMAE level
• 3m SAAR: ((P(t)/P(t−3))^4 − 1) × 100
• Trend: OLS slope of last 6 obs (pp/month)
• Clamp: [-8, 12] to reduce spike distortion
• Thresholds: ±0.05 pp/month
ATLAS Activity Score
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/ 100
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Score details
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Activity:
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Labor:
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Sraw:
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Component contributions
Component
Weight
Subscore
Impact
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Subscore is normalized to
−1..+1
. Impact is the points added to the final score.
Activity Regime
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Methodology
• Input: EMAE level
• YoY: ((P(t)/P(t−12)) − 1) × 100
• Regime: absolute activity classification based on YoY
• Thresholds:
– GROWING: YoY ≥ 2.0%
– CONTRACTING: YoY ≤ -1.0%
– otherwise: STABLE
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EXPECTATIONS - GDP at constant prices
Source: REM - BCRA (feb-26)
LABOR MARKET
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Details
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Methodology
• Input: Unemployment rate (%)
• 4q avg: mean of last 4 observations
• Trend: OLS slope of last 6 observations (pp/quarter)
• Thresholds: ±0.10 pp/quarter
• Interpretation: Falling unemployment → Tightening | Rising unemployment → Softening | Flat → Stable
PRIVATE CONSUMPTION
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Methodology
• Input: Private consumption (level)
• 4q avg: mean of last 4 observations
• Trend: OLS slope of last 6 observations (level/quarter)
• Thresholds: ±3000 per quarter
• Interpretation: Rising → Expanding | Falling → Weakening | Flat → Stable
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Index:100
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