Pro - EconoAtlas Argentina

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Economic Activity Trend

Underlying trend growth (YoY)

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How this trend is calculated

This gauge tracks the underlying growth rate of monthly economic activity, focusing on the trend rather than short-term swings.

Step 1 — Smoothing
We smooth the monthly series using a 24-month moving average to reduce seasonality and short-term noise.

Step 2 — Trend growth (YoY)
We compute the year-over-year change of the smoothed trend:

TrendYoY = (Trend(t) / Trend(t−12) − 1) × 100

How to read
Higher values imply faster underlying expansion; lower (or negative) values imply slower growth or contraction.

Inflation Momentum

Acceleration / deceleration (3-month change)

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How this signal is calculated

This gauge shows whether inflation is accelerating or decelerating.

Step 1 — Smooth the YoY series
We smooth year-over-year inflation using a 6-month EMA to reduce monthly noise.

Step 2 — Measure acceleration (p.p.)
We compute the 3-month change in the smoothed trend (in percentage points):
Momentum = Trend(t) − Trend(t−3)

How to read
Positive → accelerating inflation.
Negative → disinflation / decelerating inflation.
Near zero → stable.

Risk Trend

Structural direction (18-month slope)

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Methodology

This indicator measures the structural trend of sovereign risk using the EMBI.

Data
Monthly EMBI level (basis points).

Smoothing
The series is smoothed with a 6-month exponential moving average (EMA) to reduce short-term, event-driven volatility.

Slope calculation
The slope is computed using a linear regression over the last 18 monthly observations.

The slope represents the average monthly change of the EMBI (in bps per month).

Classification (improved)
Uses the slope and its regression uncertainty (standard error).
A trend is labeled Decreasing/Increasing only if it exceeds a dynamic threshold: max(MIN_TOL, Z · SE).

Interpretation
Negative slope → EMBI declining → sovereign risk improving.
Positive slope → EMBI rising → sovereign risk worsening.
Near zero / not significant → stable risk conditions.